Can the County Avoid a Fall COVID Surge?
Alameda County residents have a chance to avoid an anticipated surge of COVID-19 cases this autumn, but only if everyone who can, gets vaccinated and if face coverings stay on as much as possible, according to Alameda County chief health officer, Dr. Nicholas Moss.
“Going into the fall we should expect another spike in cases as people move their activities indoors,” Dr. Moss says. “However, by continuing to take measures we know can protect our communities from spreading COVID-19, we may be able to weather future surges in the same way until we reach a point where very few people get severely ill from COVID-19.”
Dr. Moss says he and his counterparts in the other Bay Area Counties have been closely monitoring any trends in reported coronavirus outbreaks. With all schools back in session, the data looks good for students of all ages, he adds.
“This summer, we have seen the benefits locally of high vaccination rates and mask use even in the absence of more stringent restrictions. We have much more immunity in our population through both vaccine and infection and we have more tools for treating people sick with COVID-19. ”
“This summer, we have seen the benefits locally of high vaccination rates and mask use even in the absence of more stringent restrictions,” Dr. Moss says. “We have much more immunity in our population through both vaccine and infection and we have more tools for treating people sick with COVID-19.”
County data shows the average number of cases per 1,000 residents between the ages of 12 and 30 is currently 158. That’s less than half the average of the same age range 30 days ago when the average was 396. COVID-19 cases in children ages 11 and younger are also around the same rate—177 cases per 1,000 on average—which is also less than half the average of 354 cases per 1,000 that spiked back in August.
More importantly, Dr. Moss adds that the county has not observed substantial numbers of hospitalizations in children.
“While our hospitalization numbers have gone up and down, they never approached the rate of hospitalization we saw in the winter,” Dr. Moss says. “Local hospitalizations have stabilized and even show signs of decreasing, but much of the State is experiencing a bed shortage and some facilities may accept transfers from other counties if needed.”
Currently, more than one million county residents are fully vaccinated, accounting for nearly 76% of the eligible population over the age of 12. Testing rates have reached an all-time peak of nearly 14,000 per day
Until vaccines are available for children under the age of 12, Dr. Moss says, the county’s best defense is a multi-layered prevention strategy including universal indoor masking at schools, appropriate testing, keeping sick children and staff at home, and maximizing ventilation.
“Flu season is also coming, along with the return of other seasonal cold viruses,” Dr. Moss says. “We need to support widespread flu vaccinations and prepare for managing people with symptoms that could be COVID, flu, or one of a number of other bugs that will circulate.”
County Health also recently announced that immunocompromised residents can begin scheduling a third vaccine dose. Third doses are authorized for moderately to severely immunocompromised people who have received two doses of Moderna or Pfizer (mRNA vaccines). Individuals must wait 28 days or more after their second dose and must register for the same vaccine (e.g., two doses of Moderna must be followed by a third dose of Moderna).
“At this time, neither the FDA nor the CDC has authorized or recommended boosters or additional doses for anyone other than those who have immunocompromising conditions,” Dr. Moss says. “We will follow the science and await federal and state public health guidance before we can administer boosters.”
Dr. Moss also said Alameda County-supported vaccination clinics will continue focusing on reaching those who are not vaccinated or fully vaccinated and would prioritize those at highest risk for severe illness or exposure if boosters are authorized and recommended for the general public.